Some parts of India may experience drought this year as the country’s official weather forecasting agency, India Meteorological Department (IMD) has lowered its expectation and said that the nationwide average cumulative rainfall in the four-month monsoon season which began in June would be below the normal range.

Quantitatively, the monsoon rainfall for the country is likely to be 93% of the long period average with a model error of +/-4% and coefficient of variation of 10%. The LPA rainfall over the country for the period 1941-1990 is estimated at 89 cm. As the IMD has cautioned about a model error of +/-4%, the quantitative rainfall may slip down to 89% of the LPA – a situation which may invite grave consequences.

Earlier on April 17, this year, the IMD making an initial forecast for the South-West Monsoon had said that countrywide average cumulative rainfall in the season would be 96% with a model error of +/-5%.

The scaling down of the expectation to 93% of the LPA is significant when the monsoon system has suffered a setback and its advance over Orissa, Maharashtra and north Andhra Pradesh has been delayed by about two weeks and by about 10 days over Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, south Madhya Pradesh and south Gujarat. As a result in the first month of the season till June 22, the average cumulative rainfall over the country is less by 52% that over northwest India is less by 41% that over central India is less by 75%, that over southern peninsula is less by 23% and that over northeast India is less by 53%.

According to area categorisation, northwest India consists of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Rajasthan, Haryana, Chandi