Reliance Jio may become No 1; Airtel, Vodafone Idea have no stomach to take on Mukesh Ambani telco: Analysts

Reliance Jio Infocomm Ltd., the mobile operator backed by India’s richest man Mukesh Ambani, could be No. 1 in the market in revenue terms by 2021 as it adds more subscribers, said Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. analysts Chris Lane and Samuel Chen. Industry-leading rivals Bharti Airtel Ltd. and Vodafone Idea Ltd. lack the “stomach” to battle Reliance Industries Ltd.’s Jio, which is luring away users with free voice services and inexpensive phones, Lane and Chen wrote in a report published Dec. 10.

Key Insights
Jio launched a free-for-life call service last year that triggered a price war and consolidation in one of the world’s most crowded mobile markets. Reliance Jio Infocomm’s free introductory nationwide 4G wireless service started in 2016, instantly roiling the world’s largest telecommunications sector after China’s. Two years later the subsidiary, which began charging for data in 2017, has 227 million users and has become profitable as it brings connectivity to remote Indian villages. The ensuing disruption forced smaller operators to quit, merge or go bankrupt. Newly merged Vodafone Idea has toppled Bharti Airtel to become India’s top operator, while Reliance Jio has quickly added subscribers to gain the No. 3 spot.

Bernstein wrote that it expects Jio’s to keep selling its subsidized JioPhones, 4G phones it sells for a refundable deposit of $23, until it reaches the No. 1 position. Bernstein said average revenue per unit would probably rise for Bharti Airtel and Vodafone Idea this year as they cancel user contracts that generate little revenue. The research firm does not expect 3G/4G pricing to start to creep up until 2020.

Market Reaction
Bernstein lowered its price targets for Bharti Airtel to 450 rupees a share and Vodafone Idea to 40 rupees a share. Bharti Airtel fell 2.1 percent to 297.45 rupees as of 10:59 a.m. in Mumbai, while Vodafone Idea dropped 1.9 percent to 33.15 rupees. The S&P BSE Sensex declined 1.7 percent.