RIL hits ₹9 trillion market cap, a first for an Indian company

The Mukesh Ambani-led Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) has become the first Indian company to cross ₹9 trillion market capitalization after its shares rose nearly 2% in Friday trading session to hit ₹1,423. The shares have surged nearly 26% since January. Investors await its September quarter earnings due later today.

India’s benchmark Sensex Index rose 0.5% or 200 points to hit 39,252 points.

The company is expected to report strong earnings in the September quarter on the back of recovery in refining margins which is likely to offset weakness in petrochemicals retail and telecom operations.

Ten of the 14 analysts polled by Bloomberg expect RIL’s consolidated net profit to be ₹11,256 crore. Nine analysts estimate the company’s revenue at ₹1.51 trillion.

“Strong refining will drive a QoQ rise in Reliance’s standalone PAT. Jio’s Arpu may see a small cut but healthy subscriber additions may still allow QoQ profit growth. Reliance Retail’s strong growth should continue,” said CLSA in a report to its investors.

Macquarie Research expects Reliance Industries’ telecom arm to report 351 million subscribers, while ARPU is expected to drop to ₹120 in the September quarter from ₹ 122 in the June quarter.

According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch RIL can become the first Indian company to achieve a market capitalisation of $200 billion in the next two years. The foreign fund and advisory firm has reiterated its buy rating on RIL with a price target of ₹1,615.

The brokerage firm assumes that the market cap to rise over $200 billion on three informational drivers – new commerce venture, fixed broadband operations and digital initiatives – could add $55 billion enterprise value for the company. The brokerage firm also assumes that its digital initiatives like advertising, lending along with SME/broadband may add $22 billion incremental value.

“RIL targets 10 million Kiranas by FY22; SME enterprise/broadband base of 9 million/7 million base by FY22 and EBITDA margins of 50%/40%; We estimate Jio’s ARPU would increase to ₹177 in FY22 from ₹122 (in 1Q20) and estimate better than expected IMO impact leading to GRMs of $13 in FY21”, the brokerage firm added.